NBA play-in – Answering the big questions about the Warriors-Lakers game

A season after successful an NBA championship within the bubble, the Los Angeles Lakers discover themselves within the NBA’s play-in spherical, needing to win a recreation simply to achieve the postseason. The Golden State Warriors, who bounced again after a dismal, injury-plagued 2019-20 to place themselves ready to return to the playoffs, stand of their manner.

When the 2023-21 season tipped off simply earlier than Christmas, few would have predicted that these two groups — the previous two Western Convention champions — would have been assembly on this stage. It doesn’t fairly have the identical stakes as previous postseason conferences between LeBron James and Stephen Curry, all of which occurred within the NBA Finals, however it’s nonetheless certain to be an thrilling recreation, with a first-round assembly with the Phoenix Suns on the road for the winner. The loser will face potential elimination on Friday.

So what ought to we anticipate from Wednesday night time’s recreation (10 p.m. ET on ESPN and the ESPN App)? Our specialists break it down.

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1. LeBron James has performed solely 4 video games up to now two months. What are you anticipating from him Wednesday night time?

Nick Friedell: LeBron all the time has the power to boost his recreation when wanted — and he all the time appears to benefit from the problem of going up towards Steph. I’m anticipating LeBron to be LeBron.

Kirk Goldsberry: Greatness. Possibly that’s unfair, however that’s what I’ve come to anticipate from the man who has led his groups to 9 of the previous 10 NBA Finals. Sure, there are lingering doubts about his ankle, however my expectations for James stay sky-high regardless. I anticipate him to be the most effective participant on the ground and in the end anticipate him to do what’s wanted for the Lakers to win.

Dave McMenamin: One thing just like the James we noticed over the weekend: placing up 25, 7 and seven, making performs on each ends and giving his crew confidence together with his presence on the ground. Frank Vogel mentioned James “had some minor soreness” in his ankle following the back-to-back however was a full participant in Tuesday’s apply and is “good to go” for the play-in.

Ramona Shelburne: Playoff LeBron. Possibly not peak Playoff LeBron, however he all the time appears to search out one other gear when the playoffs begin. I do know he’s nonetheless getting back from damage, however I’ve been overlaying the man for therefore lengthy, and seen him accomplish that many unimaginable issues, I’m not about to begin reducing expectations now.

Andre’ Snellings: I’m anticipating to see King James. LeBron averaged about 25 factors and seven assists in 28 minutes per recreation in these final two common season video games, working the rust off as a lot as potential. For the postseason, I anticipate he’d play by ache for main minutes if want be. He will likely be near his typical degree for so long as his physique permits him to be.

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Stephen A. Smith will get heated defending Steph Curry because the extra harmful participant to LeBron James for one recreation.

2. Which participant outdoors every crew’s prime two could have the largest impression Wednesday night time?

Goldsberry: Dennis Schroder. In response to Second Spectrum, no person within the NBA has guarded Curry as a lot as Schroeder has this 12 months. In 117 half-court matchups, he’s held Curry to an efficient area objective proportion of simply 40.6, a lot decrease than Curry’s season common of 61. If he can hold that up, the Lakers will likely be in nice form. If he can’t and Curry goes wild, this recreation is up for grabs.

McMenamin: Andrew Wiggins for Golden State and Andre Drummond for Los Angeles. The man the Cleveland Cavaliers traded so as to land Kevin Love and instantly compete for championships in James’ second stint in Cleveland put up profession numbers in area objective proportion (47.7) and 3-point proportion (38.0) whereas additionally being one of many league leaders in deflections. Drummond had 4 straight double-doubles to shut out the season and L.A. gained all 4 of these video games.

Shelburne: Andrew Wiggins has quietly turn into a greater defender and shooter this 12 months. Along with his measurement and athleticism that was all the time a chance, however we hadn’t seen it, so a number of people stopped trying. The Warriors are going to have their fingers full defending LeBron and AD. Wiggins might assist remedy that drawback, however he’s by no means been in a state of affairs like this, so to me, he’s an actual X issue.

Snellings: Schroder. Like LeBron, he was in a position to return and play the Lakers’ final two regular-season video games to shake off some rust. He’s the secondary offensive engine for the Lakers, and he’s additionally going to have the duty of attempting to decelerate Curry. Schroder is a stabilizing drive for these Lakers, and is quietly very important to their playoff aspirations this season.

Friedell: Wiggins. He’s been very stable a lot of the 12 months, however the distinction in his recreation this season has been the consistency on the defensive finish. He has the offensive skill to take some stress off Steph and the defensive skill to make issues a minimum of a bit more durable when he will get time on LeBron. Wiggins has proven he has the expertise to vary video games when he’s locked in.

3. What likelihood do you give the winner of Spurs-Grizzlies of beating the loser of Warriors-Lakers?

McMenamin: Possibly 15%? It should take a prime effort from the Spurs and Grizzlies to beat the loser of Warriors-Lakers.

Shelburne: Not a lot, which is extra a mirrored image on how good the Lakers and Warriors have been enjoying just lately than it’s on the Grizzlies or Spurs. The Warriors simply beat the Grizzlies in what was successfully a one-game playoff for eighth place, so they need to be favored in any matchup. The Lakers could be favored towards both crew, so long as they’re comparatively wholesome.

Snellings: If they’re going through the Warriors, I’d give them about one likelihood in 5 to beat them. They’d be fairly massive underdogs to get previous the synergy and expertise of Curry and Draymond Inexperienced. In the event that they need to play a wholesome Lakers crew, I don’t give them a lot likelihood in any respect. Possibly 1 in 20, and that 1 is all about the opportunity of damage. I don’t see another cheap manner the Lakers aren’t within the playoffs by the top of the week.

Friedell: By no means say by no means, particularly this season, however each the Warriors and Lakers appear clearly higher than each of these groups.

Goldsberry: Something can occur in a single recreation. It’s why March Insanity is, effectively, insanity. That’s why the Wednesday recreation is so vital. Certain, whoever loses nonetheless has one other likelihood at house, however you don’t wish to tempt destiny, particularly within the 3-point period, the place variance is king. One among these two squads will likely be flirting with catastrophe when they’re compelled to play in that loser-leaves-town-match Friday night time.

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Jay Williams examines what the Lakers must do so as to cease Steph Curry within the play-in recreation.

4. End this sentence: The Lakers will win Wednesday’s recreation if …

Shelburne: They defend just like the top-rated protection within the league. That’s been the bedrock of their crew the previous two years, and also you flat-out need to defend like that towards Curry.

Snellings: They don’t endure any main accidents and are in a position to play an entire recreation. The previous two instances these groups performed, in February and March, the Lakers gained by a median of 28.5 factors. And that was with out Anthony Davis, towards a wholesome Warriors crew. The Lakers are simply too massive, too gifted and too deep for the Warriors to defeat them in a recreation of this magnitude outdoors of particular circumstances.

Friedell: They dominate inside and LeBron and AD play as much as their regular degree. The Warriors can’t match the Lakers’ measurement.

Goldsberry: Stephen Curry scores fewer than 25 factors.

McMenamin: They hit 10 or extra 3-pointers. They went 30-19 within the common season after they hit the double-digit plateau for made 3s.

5. End this sentence: The Warriors will win Wednesday’s recreation if …

Snellings: LeBron’s re-tweaked ankle and Davis’ number of accidents are extra critical than reported and neither is ready to play at close to full energy. As well as, Curry would have to be in a type of zones the place he’s dancing whereas hitting 10 3-pointers to make the most of any surprising alternative.

Friedell: Steph will get rolling all through, Draymond is engaged and dominant on the defensive finish, and Wiggins helps carry a few of the offensive load whereas slowing down LeBron.

Goldsberry: Curry is ready to play like he did Sunday and rating 40-plus like he did within the win over Memphis.

McMenamin: They hold Anthony Davis off the foul line. The Lakers have been simply 3-7 within the common season when Davis tried three foul photographs or fewer.

Shelburne: They get contributions from somebody apart from Curry. We all know Steph must be sensible for Golden State to win. We don’t know whether or not anybody else will be capable to create offense if the Lakers throw the kitchen sink at him.

Bonus query. Reality or fiction: The winner of Warriors-Lakers will win the first-round sequence towards the Phoenix Suns

Friedell: I feel the Lakers can, particularly if LeBron and AD are wholesome. I’m unsure the Warriors can win 4 video games towards the Suns. It’s not out of the query due to the best way Steph has been enjoying, however Steph’s brilliance doesn’t take away from the truth that the Warriors are nonetheless a flawed crew.

Goldsberry: Fiction. The Suns have been stable all 12 months lengthy, and so they earned the 2-seed. If the Lakers win this recreation, and if they’re able to stay wholesome, they may clearly be harmful — however these are two massive ifs.

McMenamin: Reality, within the case of the Lakers successful. Fiction, within the case of the Warriors successful. Both manner, it is going to be a protracted six or seven recreation sequence towards the Suns earlier than the winner is set.

Shelburne: Fiction. I’m greater on the Suns than most. They’re actually stable at each ends, and so they have an elite nearer in Chris Paul. The Lakers could be favored in a sequence towards them. I’m unsure the Warriors would. However I might see the Suns taking both of them out.

Snellings: Reality, and the draw is extraordinarily unlucky for the Suns. I feel the Suns are adequate to beat another Western Convention crew in a sequence, but when the Lakers are wholesome, they need to be favored to come back out of the West, even from a decrease seed. If the Lakers aren’t absolutely proper, and/or the Warriors pull the upset, then the Suns have a a lot better likelihood to advance, doubtlessly all the best way to the Finals.