NBA playoffs 2023 – What’s real and what’s not in Round 1?

All eight NBA playoffs first-round matchups are set — and the hunt to 16 wins can now formally start.

The defending champion Los Angeles Lakers discover themselves in a singular place because the betting favourite of their collection towards the Phoenix Suns whereas being the No. 7 seed. The Brooklyn Nets are the favorites to emerge from the East however face the problem of their three stars — Kevin Durant, James Harden and Kyrie Irving — having performed solely eight video games collectively within the common season. In the meantime, ought to the top-seeded Philadelphia 76ers and Utah Jazz be involved about their first-round matchups towards the Washington Wizards and Memphis Grizzlies who make use of game-changing guards reminiscent of Bradley Beal and Ja Morant?

Our consultants check out what to consider in for the opening spherical. From Michael Porter Jr. choosing up the scoring load for a depleted Denver Nuggets roster to Jimmy Butler reawakening the offensive excellence that propelled the Miami Warmth to the NBA Finals final season, we’re finding out what’s actual and what’s not in Spherical 1 of the NBA playoffs.

Spherical 1 matchups | Consultants’ picks | What to know for playoffs

Actual or not: The switch-flipping Lakers

The Lakers have been flat-out terrible within the first half of their win over the Warriors for the No. 7 seed Wednesday. Within the second half they discovered their manner, forcing 15 turnovers with their top-rated protection, sending a wide range of seems at Stephen Curry and placing the clamps on the Warriors’ supporting solid.

A noticeable distinction, sure. Perhaps even a flipped change, if you’ll. However the greatest difficulty for the Lakers of their quest to repeat as champions is perhaps well being, not effort.

The Lakers confirmed a ton of character and psychological toughness in sustaining their top-rated protection whereas Anthony Davis and LeBron James have been out with accidents. Take into consideration that. Their protection was higher whereas among the finest defenders within the league was out. That’s not a knock on Davis. It’s a praise to guys like Alex Caruso, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Kyle Kuzma. As a result of with out James and Davis, protection was the Lakers’ finest approach to win. It was the bedrock of final 12 months’s championship group and should be once more if the Lakers can play their manner by the Western Convention from play-in sport qualification.

That protection has been there all 12 months. They didn’t have to flip any switches. However they nonetheless have to reincorporate James and Davis, they usually completely want each to be wholesome.

— Ramona Shelburne

Actual or not: A protracted first-round collection will profit Brooklyn

Not actual. Whereas no group with their high three scorers having performed fewer than 10 video games collectively has gone on to win a championship, the Brooklyn Nets wouldn’t essentially profit from an extended collection towards the Boston Celtics in hopes of constructing chemistry amongst their stars.

Why? As a result of the Nets had a bent within the common season to wrestle towards groups under their stage, together with the Celtics. Kevin Durant has mentioned they’ll’t afford to view Boston as an inferior group that will probably be a simple out. As an alternative, he mentioned the group has to deal with the Celtics with the respect of figuring out “we may be beat if we don’t lock in.”

Wanting on the Celtics as a group they’ll afford to stretch into a protracted collection may very well be harmful for the Nets — they usually realize it. “We perceive that we haven’t performed a whole lot of video games collectively,” Durant added. “However we’ve been on the court docket collectively in practices, we’ve been round one another within the coaching facility, on the bus, on the aircraft. So if we will’t get on the ground, we’ve been attempting to fill within the blanks with different stuff so far as watching movie, communication, simply speaking out what we see amongst one another.”

— Malika Andrews

Actual or not: The Utah Jazz will coast to the convention finals

Not. The play-in match actually labored out effectively for the Jazz, eliminating Stephen Curry’s Warriors and placing LeBron James’ Lakers on the opposite finish of the bracket. However simple paths don’t exist within the Western Convention.

The highest-seeded, well-rested Jazz will probably be closely favored within the first spherical towards the younger Memphis Grizzlies, however you may assure that Ja Morant received’t have any worry within the first playoff collection of his profession.

The Jazz could be silly to mistake Memphis’ inexperience for a move to the second spherical. The Grizzlies are a troublesome, scrappy group that can make Utah earn 4 wins.

Then the LA Clippers will possible await the Jazz, who will in all probability enter that collection because the underdog regardless of having home-court benefit and the very best report within the NBA.

That’s primarily as a result of the Clippers have one key title ingredient that the Jazz don’t: a famous person who has participated in championship parades, two-time Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard.

The Clippers have been thought of professional title contenders for the reason that second Paul George and Leonard determined to group up in L.A. The Jazz have crashed that occasion this season, however Las Vegas nonetheless provides Utah the third-best odds to come back out of the West, it doesn’t matter what the standings say.

— Tim MacMahon

play

Stephen A. Smith explains why he’s not a fan of Giannis Antetokounmpo’s feedback concerning the Bucks’ probabilities within the postseason.

Actual or not: This scorching Warmth offense

On March 14, the Miami Warmth had the NBA’s sixth-worst offense. I don’t care how good your protection is — or concerning the energy of your vaunted tradition — you’re going nowhere within the postseason with an offense that dangerous.

Since that day — a stretch encompassing nearly half the common season — Miami ranks Tenth in factors per possession. From April 1 to the top — two dozen video games — it ranked fifth. If that’s actual, if the Warmth are pulling this similar “coalesce on the proper second” trick for the second straight season, they’re completely a risk to ship the Milwaukee Bucks spiraling into existentialism once more.

I’m inclined to consider it’s a minimum of real-ish — that the Warmth are a superb offense, although not an excellent one. They’ve scored 113.3 factors per 100 possessions with Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, and Duncan Robinson on the ground, equal to the Boston Celtics’ Tenth-ranked offense. After uneven seasons, each Goran Dragic and Tyler Herro appear to be cresting; Dragic hit 44-of-108 (41%) on 3s in April and Might, and Herro averaged 16.7 factors on 54% taking pictures over his last six regular-season video games after coming back from harm.

Miami received peak variations of each in its run to the Finals within the bubble; the Dragic-Adebayo pick-and-roll was one of many Warmth’s most constant weapons, and Herro helped swing a number of video games together with his scoring.

Going from Jae Crowder to Trevor Ariza is a downgrade — Crowder scorched Milwaukee final season — however Ariza has hit 35% from deep on respectable quantity in Miami. Kendrick Nunn had an under-the-radar, stable season. Dewayne Dedmon stabilized the bench.

The Warmth are rock-solid on protection, and as effectively coached as any group. They don’t should be elite on offense to push Milwaukee. They simply should be good. They’re underdogs — they need to be — however they’ve an actual probability at an upset.

— Zach Lowe

Earlier than Jamal Murray’s premature ACL tear on April 12, the Denver Nuggets appeared to have discovered a powerful offensive hierarchy with MVP favourite Nikola Jokic as their first choice on offense, Murray as No. 2 and Michael Porter Jr. as their third choice.

Murray’s absence, compounded by the following lack of fourth-leading scorer Will Barton to a hamstring pressure, created a chance for Porter. He has taken full benefit, averaging 23.5 factors per sport since Murray went down — greater than the 21.2 PPG Murray was scoring.

However Porter’s effectivity is extra spectacular but. Regardless of growing his utilization fee from 21% of the Nuggets’ performs to 23.5%, Porter has made 63% of his 2-point makes an attempt and 49% of his 3s over the previous month-plus. Solely his free throw taking pictures (85%) has prevented Porter from being within the 50-40-90 membership over that span.

Based mostly on his expert taking pictures at 6-foot-10 with a lanky body, Porter has lengthy been in comparison with 2013-14 MVP Kevin Durant. Their scoring stats since April 12 are strikingly comparable.

Nearly actually Porter can’t keep this scorching. Even Durant had by no means surpassed 42% 3-point taking pictures in a season earlier than hitting 45% taking part in simply 35 video games this 12 months. Nevertheless, no one who watched Porter as a top-rated prep sensation is shocked by what he’s doing. Porter’s expertise was apparent earlier than again surgical procedure marred his lone season at Missouri and prompted him to tumble to 14th within the 2018 draft.

Denver had the heart to attend out a second again surgical procedure that price Porter your complete 2018-19 season. Now he’s a key cause the Nuggets would possibly have the ability to win a playoff collection or two with out Murray.

— Kevin Pelton

Actual or not: Joel Embiid as the one greatest mismatch in Spherical 1

Form of. Embiid is a mismatch towards just about any middle, with exceptions for Nikola Jokic and Rudy Gobert, two of the few who can go toe-to-toe with him. No disrespect to Washington’s troika of pivots — Alex Len, Robin Lopez and Daniel Gafford — however none of them can do something towards Embiid, who was arguably the NBA’s most dominant and finest two-way participant this season. He ought to lead Philadelphia to a cushty first-round victory.

So, why is the reply form of? As a result of there are a number of different matchups throughout the league that might show equally decisive in figuring out how the collection performs out. Paradoxically, one entails Jokic’s Denver Nuggets and the way they’ll try to cease the Portland Path Blazers’ dynamic backcourt of Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum.

Denver’s backcourt getting into this collection is the equal of bringing a fork to a gunfight. The Nuggets are with out Jamal Murray, after he tore his ACL earlier this season. Past that, Denver can even be with out beginning taking pictures guard Will Barton (hamstring pressure) and reserve guard PJ Dozier (adductor pressure) for Recreation 1, and sure past it. Austin Rivers, whom they signed not too long ago to fill in as depth, may be out as he’s questionable for Saturday’s sport with a non-COVID-19 sickness.

No group is perhaps higher suited to reap the benefits of Denver’s ills than Portland, which has a pair of bona fide clutch stars in Lillard and McCollum — each of whom have had large postseason moments, together with towards the Nuggets in an epic Western Convention semifinal that went seven video games in 2019. The expertise hole at guard might permit this matchup to go the space once more this 12 months — and will permit the Path Blazers to get the identical end result.

— Tim Bontemps