Man City or Chelsea? Guardiola vs. Tuchel, Foden vs. Mount, expert predictions

The ultimate sport of the 2023-21 season is upon us, because the UEFA Champions League will likely be determined this Saturday in Portugal. Will it’s the all-conquering superteam that’s Manchester Metropolis, as they lastly win the one trophy they’ve by no means held? (It might additionally break a 10-year drought for Pep Guardiola, who final received it with Lionel Messi and Barcelona in 2010-11.) Or will it’s Chelsea, who’ve crushed Metropolis twice in current weeks (as soon as within the FA Cup semifinal, and once more of their Premier League fixture) however are enduring a horrendous run of type? (Thomas Tuchel, a shedding finalist final season with Paris Saint-Germain, can even be desirous to erase the disappointment of defeat vs. Bayern.)

There are storylines galore because the Premier League sides put together to do battle, however we’ve received you coated earlier than the season finale.

Bounce to: Man Metropolis’s assault | Can Tuchel win? | Foden vs. Mount | Ruben Dias the X-Issue? | Predictions

Chelsea’s protection vs. Man Metropolis’s assault

Defensive reliability has been the bedrock of each Chelsea’s and Manchester Metropolis’s development to the ultimate, with the 2 golf equipment conceding a competition-best 4 objectives on their approach to Porto. Metropolis conceded only one objective in six video games through the group stage — within the opening fixture in opposition to FC Porto in October — whereas Chelsea shipped simply two objectives below Frank Lampard’s administration of their group.

Paradoxically, the one staff to blemish the data of Metropolis and Chelsea on this season’s competitors has been Porto, the resident membership at Estadio do Dragao, the place Saturday’s closing will likely be performed. The Portuguese staff are the one facet to beat Chelsea within the Champions League this season, successful their quarterfinal second leg 1-0 in impartial Seville in April, and Sergio Conceicao’s facet are the only real staff to have denied Metropolis a victory this time period after they held Pep Guardiola’s staff 0-0 at house in December.

When it comes to objectives, Metropolis have scored 25 on their approach to the ultimate with Chelsea managing 22, however Thomas Tuchel’s staff could have the psychological benefit of successful their final two home encounters with Metropolis.

A 1-0 victory within the FA Cup semifinal at Wembley final month preceded a 2-1 win on the Etihad, when Chelsea fought again from being 1-0 down to say all three factors. On each events, Chelsea’s tempo on the counterattack proved decisive, with Timo Werner, Hakim Ziyech and Mason Mount all exploiting areas within the Metropolis defence to depart Guardiola with a tactical downside to resolve in Porto.

Chelsea’s prospects depend upon a optimistic flip after health worries surrounding goalkeeper Edouard Mendy and midfielder N’Golo Kante. Each have been essential in Chelsea’s run to the ultimate and Kante’s availability, particularly, will likely be key to defending the again three and stifling Metropolis’s attacking gamers.

Whereas Metropolis’s defence, significantly the centre-back pairing of Ruben Dias and John Stones, is a robust level, it’s the array of attacking shops that make them so harmful. Kevin De Bruyne, Raheem Sterling, Phil Foden, Bernardo Silva, Gabriel Jesus and Ferran Torres might all play a major function on Saturday, with membership file scorer Sergio Aguero all the time able to deciding the sport from the bench.

However the closing will come down as to whether Chelsea can repel Metropolis’s waves of assaults lengthy sufficient to hit them on the counter, as they’ve completed twice prior to now six weeks. — Mark Ogden

Can Tuchel shake off final yr’s ache and win together with his new staff?

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Steve Nicol wonders the place Chelsea’s spark will come from vs. Manchester Metropolis within the Champions League closing.

Should you watched Tuchel within the technical space throughout Chelsea’s final two video games, in opposition to Leicester and Aston Villa, you’d have seen him wanting tense, pissed off and pressured; he appeared indignant and on the sting, which made sense given how a lot was at stake for him personally and for the staff.

Chelsea’s season hinged upon ending fourth within the Premier League. It was Tuchel’s goal when he joined the membership in January, the Blues languishing in ninth on the time. Then again, the Champions League was not one in all his targets. He needed to do in addition to doable, clearly, however the precedence was to enhance and to climb up the league desk. But, this European marketing campaign has been a improbable journey and the German made historical past this yr in turning into the primary supervisor ever to achieve two Champions League finals in a row with totally different groups.

This week, there is no such thing as a frustration or stress. He has been extra chilled-out than ever earlier than since becoming a member of the membership. Smiles had been current in coaching — loads of laughter, too — and he has tried all week to transmit this renewed calmness and serenity to his gamers. He is aware of all too properly, after his expertise final season with Paris Saint-Germain, which you can’t strategy such a giant sport in a state of stress. Gamers can not stress earlier than such an unbelievable match. They must benefit from the event, profit from it and be themselves.

That’s the message Tuchel has handed on to his gamers. He’s nonetheless been making use of stress, after all, however optimistic stress. In essence, You might be 90 minutes (or a bit extra) away from successful the largest prize in membership soccer. You will have already crushed Manchester Metropolis twice in the previous couple of weeks, within the FA Cup (1-0) at Wembley and away on the Etihad within the league (2-1) with an outstanding collective efficiency within the second half.

Because the Premier League ended on Sunday, the communication has been so optimistic and assured from Tuchel in the direction of his squad. He realized rather a lot from shedding to Bayern Munich with PSG final season, a sport for which Tuchel ready completely and the place his staff was the most effective over the 90 minutes, solely to lose it with their lack of composure: Bayern had been scientific when Paris had been wasteful.

Within the two video games Tuchel received in opposition to Pep Guardiola and Metropolis since his arrival at Chelsea, his staff was very scientific. They should be once more on Saturday.

Other than him, solely Thiago Silva and Mateo Kovacic have been on this place earlier than. Silva misplaced his Champions League closing with Tuchel, whereas Kovacic received it 3 times at Actual Madrid below Zinedine Zidane! They’ve additionally led by instance this week to be sure that everybody on this Chelsea squad is able to go together with the proper mindset. — Julien Laurens

Foden vs. Mount

There are many apparent similarities that tie Mason Mount and Phil Foden, a pair of playmakers who might star in opposition to each other this weekend however play alongside each other on the Euros. They’re each good English midfielders nonetheless years from their potential peak. They each play totally on the left. They each are each tasked with creating a few of their respective groups’ extra harmful attacking moments.

Their variations say rather a lot about Manchester Metropolis and Chelsea: this desk reveals the pair in Premier League and Champions League play in 2023-21 (per 90 minutes).

Foden’s job is fairly easy to explain. In possession play, he hugs the touchline and hyperlinks up with the left-back (more and more, Oleksandr Zinchenko), midfielders Ilkay Gundogan and Rodri, plus Joao Cancelo in no matter place he’s enjoying from minute to minute. When there’s a “fast-break” alternative, he turns into the Magic Johnson to Riyad Mahrez’s James Worthy, serving the killer move that permits Mahrez to dunk it house or, if given sufficient house, scoring himself together with his scythe of a proper leg. He makes an attempt fewer one-on-ones than Mount, however wins a far better proportion of them.

Because the begin of 2023, Metropolis started to seek out type partly by permitting Foden to perform a little extra within the attacking division. He’s averaged 2.1 probabilities created and 0.54 xG+xA per 90 since Jan. 1, and the adjusted function has seemed nice on him.

Mount, alternatively, creates much less within the defensive field, however does extra to assist Chelsea get there. Since Tuchel’s appointment, Mount has created greater than twice as many probabilities as anybody else on the staff within the Premier League and Champions League — he’s received 45, whereas Reece James is second with 27 — and his anticipated help complete (which measures the probability {that a} given move will grow to be a objective help, per Stats Carry out) is 4.5, far larger than second-place Christian Pulisic (3.1).

In matches Mount’s performed below Tuchel, Chelsea have averaged 2.4 factors per sport when he creates no less than two probabilities, and 1.4 when he doesn’t. The Chelsea assault can also be at its finest when he’s touching the ball all around the pitch, not simply alongside the left facet. (See the beneath warmth map from his season.)

Foden is maybe a extra harmful participant than Mount and permits Metropolis to create extra vertical, high-percentage scoring alternatives. However Mount is Chelsea’s engine: if the Blues rating or defeat Metropolis this weekend, he doubtless had a key function in it. — Invoice Connelly

The rise of Ruben Dias: is he the X issue for Man Metropolis?

Simply over two years in the past, Guardiola was reflecting on the departure of talismanic captain and defender Vincent Kompany. “It is going to be so tough to exchange Vinnie,” he mentioned. They had been in essence shedding the heartbeat of their defence, however in Ruben Dias, Metropolis have a new-look chief in his stead.

Guardiola has lengthy looked for the proper combos on the again, spending in extra of £400m on defenders, with Dias, 24, the most costly — coming in at £62m from Benfica final September. The hefty price ticket raised eyebrows, particularly within the midst of monetary constraints as a result of coronavirus pandemic, however Dias’ debut season within the Premier League has impressed to the extent he was named FWA Participant of the Yr and has already been talked about by Guardiola as a future Metropolis captain.

Whether or not Guardiola pairs him with John Stones or Aymeric Laporte on the weekend, count on to see and listen to a lot from Dias.

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Shaka Hislop explains why Man Metropolis’s Ruben Dias has been the excellent Premier League participant this season.

In Metropolis’s 2-0 win over PSG within the semifinal second leg, Dias made three of Metropolis’s 9 blocks — essentially the most in any match below Guardiola — with two pictures clattering straight into his nostril. Metropolis’s cost to the Premier League title was constructed on a watertight defence that conceded the fewest objectives within the high flight (32), whereas Dias’ transitional play additionally paid dividends: his move completion price of 93.2% is made much more exceptional by the very fact he tried extra passes (2,713) than another defender within the Premier League.

Nevertheless it’s the intangible qualities which have appealed to Guardiola. When he described Dias as “undroppable” in February, he pointed to the affect the Portuguese defender has had on his teammates. “He’s not only a participant who performs good, he’s a participant who makes the opposite guys play good too,” Guardiola mentioned. “It’s 90 minutes speaking, 90 minutes speaking, 90 minutes saying what they must do in each single motion.”

Guardiola additionally not too long ago hailed Dias’ generosity with how he sees the sport, continually advising and filling in for his defensive companions, wingers or fullbacks. “He’s a man who within the unhealthy moments is all the time prepared to assist and he’s a person of communication on and off the pitch,” Guardiola mentioned of Dias in Might. “He’s a pacesetter. To be a pacesetter is to not be given to you by the membership; it comes from inside, it’s pure.

“He’s all the time considering what he can do higher. That’s the reason he may have success.”

Metropolis have their new Kompany and with it, they’ve their goals of European footballing immortality, constructed on the rock on the again. — Tom Hamilton

Predictions

Man Metropolis 2, Chelsea 0: Metropolis have the most effective staff, squad and supervisor. Their current defeats in opposition to Chelsea will guarantee a component of doubt within the gamers’ minds, however they may have realized their classes and will win this sport comfortably. — Ogden

Man Metropolis 0, Chelsea 1: I believe the Blues have a sport suited to play in opposition to Manchester Metropolis and can trigger them issues with their defensive form and build-up play. — Laurens

Man Metropolis 2, Chelsea 0: Metropolis’s the one factor that has made sense this yr. It’s their time. (It’s both this, or Chelsea successful on an extra-time, fast-break from Werner.) — Connelly

Man Metropolis 2, Chelsea 0: Two weeks in the past, I’d have gone with Chelsea springing a Tuchel-inspired shock. However following their current dip in type, Manchester Metropolis ought to full a treble on Saturday. — Hamilton