College Football Playoff expansion roundtable — The good, the bad, the what-ifs

Subsequent week, the School Soccer Playoff administration committee will think about a proposal to increase the CFP to 12 groups.

The proposal requires the bracket to incorporate the six highest-ranked convention champions and the six remaining highest-ranked groups as decided by the CFP choice committee.

So what occurs now? First, the administration committee would want to approve the plan. If it does, it goes to the board of managers, a bunch of 11 college presidents and chancellors. In the event that they approve it, then the convention commissioners and Notre Dame AD Jack Swarbrick will spend the summer time determining how you can implement it.

“It’s step one in an extended course of that gained’t finish earlier than September,” CFP govt director Invoice Hancock stated.

However that doesn’t imply we will’t begin speaking about it now. So let’s break down what we all know to date.

What’s the perfect a part of the proposed 12-team CFP?

Chris Low: How cool would it not have been to see Coastal Carolina or Cincinnati on the massive stage final season? Each groups have been legit however have been by no means going to smell a playoff berth in a four-team format. In a 12-team format, based mostly on final 12 months’s remaining School Soccer Playoff rankings, each groups would have made it. Curiously sufficient, the Pac-12 would have been shut out.

Kyle Bonagura: The month of November. One of many greatest points with the four-team playoff was that it grew to become clear about two-thirds of the best way by the season — with some exceptions — which groups have been going to stay related. This format retains many extra groups within the combine deeper into the season, which can inevitably result in extra significant video games. This may maintain extra fan bases invested for longer, which is overwhelmingly optimistic for the game as an entire.

Mark Schlabach: If nothing else, an expanded playoff at the very least provides extra packages a perception they’ll truly make it. No different sport has a playoff as unique as school soccer’s present system — solely 3% of the 130 FBS groups make the four-team playoff and solely 6% of the 65 Energy 5 groups get to go. This at the very least provides groups aside from Alabama, Clemson, Georgia, LSU, Ohio State and Oklahoma a authentic probability to make it. An expanded playoff may not change the result — Alabama or Clemson might be going to win extra instances than not — but it surely at the very least modifications issues up. The CFP has gotten fairly stale.

Harry Lyles Jr.: Trying by the lens of issues we love about school soccer, residence postseason video games would have unimaginable atmospheres. Common-season school soccer video games have already got a few of the greatest environments in sports activities, and once you add extra stakes to these, it might be unimaginable to observe.

Alex Scarborough: I’m nonetheless not bought that we truly wanted extra playoff video games or that they are going to in any means change the result, however I’ll take the growth if it means postseason video games going down on campuses. It’s that necessary. The worst factor in regards to the playoff and bowl system has at all times been the way it removes the power of being on campus. So convey on an much more raucous Tiger Stadium or a White Out in Comfortable Valley.

David M. Hale: For the reason that first dialog a couple of playoff, there’s been hand-wringing over its affect on the common season, however these conversations usually have the problem backward. Too few groups within the playoff truly makes tons of in any other case good matchups irrelevant if neither group has a shot at being within the prime 4. In fact, increase an excessive amount of and there’s danger of groups coasting right into a playoff spot, too, however I don’t suppose 12 will get us there. Plus, with byes and on-campus residence video games at stake for increased seeds, it appears unlikely anybody’s going to be resting starters in November, even when a spot within the prime 12 seems pretty sure. Extra playoff groups means extra video games that matter for the playoff, and that’s an excellent factor.

Which half are you most skeptical of?

Hale: This technique actually doesn’t deal with a lot of the greatest points at present plaguing school soccer. The additional spots supply a lifeline to the Group of 5 and Pac-12, however the SEC and Huge Ten seemingly will finally profit extra, if historical past is any indication. School soccer desperately must increase its geographic footprint, but when this technique performed out over the previous seven years, half the bids would’ve gone to the SEC and Huge Ten. We’re additionally probably asking some groups to play as many as 17 video games, which can absolutely present a windfall for the faculties, conferences and sport — but it surely additionally shines one more enormous highlight on the inequities dealing with the gamers. And for those who don’t just like the committee’s haphazard strategy now, properly, simply wait till its position will get tripled.

Dave Wilson: Will the choice committee have the center to rank a number of Group of 5 groups in place to compete? Or will they nonetheless be afterthoughts pitted in opposition to powerhouses?

Invoice Connelly: Relying on what changes are made to regular-season scheduling — and customarily, in the case of giving up potential income from any recreation, the reply is “we’re not adjusting something” — this might certainly create a situation during which a group performs as much as 17 video games in a season. It’s arduous for me to justify this if we’re not making main strikes on each title, picture and likeness rights and the medical belief fund concept that directors have kicked round. The previous goes to occur in a single kind or one other, however the latter nonetheless isn’t assured. The latter must be assured.

Andrea Adelson: I’ve been an growth proponent, however shifting from 4 to 12 groups will do completely nothing to change who will truly have an opportunity to win a nationwide championship. The identical 4 to 6 groups might be within the prime 4 practically yearly and can nonetheless have an enormous benefit on everybody else. Oh positive, getting a Group of 5 group is “progress,” till you begin calculating A) the place they are going to probably get ranked (exterior the highest eight), and B) what meaning for operating the desk to a championship (not gonna occur). It’s like giving the Group of 5 groups a lollipop they’ve begged for, solely to show a nook and enter a Las Vegas-style buffet reserved just for the Energy 5. You suppose griping about blowout semifinal video games within the four-team playoff was dangerous? Simply wait.

What’s your favourite what-if a couple of 12-team playoff because the CFP’s inception?

Wilson: Would the raging 2014 Baylor-TCU debate have given us presumably a rematch of their 61-58 regular-season basic?

Lyles: It may not essentially be my favourite, however some recency bias that I’d like to have seen play out is the 2023 season with Cincinnati and Coastal Carolina. All of us felt sturdy about these two whilst Group of 5 groups, and it might be fascinating to see how it might play out in such a format.

Low: A “nationwide championship” matchup within the second spherical between Alabama and UCF in 2017 at Bryant-Denny Stadium. After which a nationwide championship parade the following day.

Hale: UCF. 2017. Sufficient stated.

Who’s the most important winner on this proposal?

Lyles: The followers. I feel most individuals are cheap and notice that regardless of the format, the perfect groups in school soccer are at all times going to be there ultimately. However all people loves an excellent event with at the very least the potential for upset. And for those who’re a fan of a group that will get to host a recreation, that’s even higher.

Low: The wealthy get richer. The SEC fared fairly properly within the four-team CFP playoff and within the previous two-team BCS system. In 14 of the final 15 years, an SEC group has both gained or performed for a nationwide championship, and that features 5 completely different groups. So simply because the playoff area is increasing, that doesn’t imply the same old suspects gained’t nonetheless be those profitable the {hardware}, particularly now that much more of these traditional suspects might be within the area.

Hale: The most important winners are the SEC and Huge Ten, which ought to come as little shock as a result of … properly, they’re at all times the most important winners. Beneath the present system, the Huge Ten had six playoff groups in seven years. If the brand new system had been in place, they’d have had 20. The SEC would’ve had 11 groups within the playoff in simply the previous three seasons. Extra playoff groups interprets to extra income and higher recruiting for the 2 leagues that have been already lapping the sphere in each classes.

Scarborough: The Pac-12 lastly has a shot now …. proper?

Connelly: Contemplating the reply could possibly be each “the Group of 5” and “the SEC and Huge Ten,” I’ve to say I’m extraordinarily impressed with the political calibrations concerned right here.

Schlabach: I can inform you who the most important losers are: the bowl video games that aren’t a part of the 12-team playoff. Most of these second- and third-tier bowl video games have been turning into irrelevant due to a four-team postseason and participant opt-outs, and now many can have a good harder street.

Adelson: One athletic director advised me the SEC pushed the 12-team mannequin, which is smart as a result of the SEC is the most important winner — and it’s not even shut.