Why France vs. Germany could be Euro 2023’s game of the group stage

France vs. Germany is likely one of the most anticipated matchups of the Euro 2023 group stage, and it might properly be one of many video games of the event. A lot hinges on their Group F conflict on condition that Portugal are additionally of their group, with a defeat in Tuesday’s recreation — stream LIVE on ESPN, 3 p.m. ET, ESPN/ESPN+ — probably spelling catastrophe for the loser’s possibilities of making the knockout spherical and getting a positive draw.

ESPN’s Gab Marcotti and Julien Laurens are right here to get you prepared for the match.

Julien Laurens: Ah the Germans, our fiercest rivals!

The historical past of recent French soccer is filled with chapters involving Germany, from their assembly on the 1982 World Cup, after all — simply watch this video — to Euro 2016, when France gained 2-0 of their semifinal. It’s additionally true on the membership stage, from the European Cup ultimate in 1976 at Hampden Park, and the notorious sq. posts, to the 2023 Champions League ultimate between Paris Saint-Germain and Bayern Munich behind closed doorways in Lisbon.

On Tuesday, we are going to flip a brand new web page. There may be one massive distinction this time, although: the French are favourites. Not simply favourites, truly; we’re massive favourites, enormous favourites. We’re gargantuan! Often, it’s Germany; they’re recognized for ruthlessness, effectivity and their capacity to all the time discover a method to win when it issues. Not this time.

This time, France have that energy inside them, like they confirmed in Russia on the 2018 World Cup. France have the very best squad, the very best beginning XI, the very best head coach, the momentum, the arrogance, the swag.

What do Germany have in return, other than a supervisor on his method out, the very best holding midfielder on the planet (Joshua Kimmich) who finally ends up enjoying at right-back, and a dodgy defence?

– Euro 2023 on ESPN: Stream LIVE video games and replays (U.S. solely)
– European Soccer Choose ‘Em: Compete to win $10,000
– Euro 2023 bracket and fixture schedule

Gab Marcotti: Proper … So first off, don’t flatter your self. Germany are everyone’s largest rival: the Dutch, the Italians, the English … it’s inevitable. Germany set the usual in Europe and, specifically, on the Euros. There’s a cause Germany have gained it extra instances than anybody. There’s a cause Germany have additionally reached the semifinals in every of the previous three Euros.

So, frankly, the truth that France are favourites doesn’t actually faze me. They have been favourites in 2016 in opposition to Portugal on the Stade de France too, proper? How’d that work out? In truth, weren’t Les Bleus favourites when France met Germany within the quarterfinal in Rio in 2014, after Germany have been practically knocked out by Algeria? We all know how that labored out. And sure, Mats Hummels, who scored that day, is again. Fortunate you.

I’m not going to disclaim that France have a greater squad and a greater XI, however it is a crew sport. You need to undergo this? Let’s do it.

Let’s begin with the supervisor. I gained’t deny that Jogi Low has had a tough time of late as supervisor, and is a little bit of an acquired style. I’m positive France’s Didier Deschamps is extra enjoyable on an evening out, however Low has gained earlier than and he is aware of that is his final hurrah. That has a method of clarifying, of simplifying; he doesn’t have to construct the way forward for Germany right here, he simply wants a efficiency over seven video games.

He’ll maintain it easy. He’ll observe the script German groups have used on the membership stage to achieve success: assault and press. The gamers perceive the scenario and can do the remaining.

What is going to Deschamps do? Reward his favourites with locations within the lineup, play 4 central defenders throughout the again and easily have Paul Pogba lumping it lengthy for Kylian Mbappe, Antoine Griezmann and Karim Benzema to chase? Actual refined, that. Actual trendy. You might need the arrogance and the swagger, however you have got a essentially conservative and defensive coach.

It labored out in 2018 as a result of Jorge Sampaoli’s Argentina have been on a self-destruct mission and since Belgium’s ending was off. Don’t get too cocky …

Laurens: I feel you need to have watched the World Cup of one other sport in 2018! France destroyed Argentina not due to Sampaoli, however largely as a result of Mbappe was unplayable that day. What ending was “off” for Belgium within the semifinal? They’d loads of the ball and couldn’t do something with it. They’re nonetheless so upset about it that it nonetheless makes me snort!

If something, France have develop into “old-fashioned” beneath Deschamps. You win since you are pragmatic, and Deschamps is a winner by essence. Quarterfinals in 2014, ultimate in 2016, winner in 2018: nobody has performed higher and positively not “Jogi Bear,” who has clearly misplaced his contact and can’t look forward to his retirement.

Low has had extra lives than a cat prior to now few years. How did he survive the fiasco of 2018? How did he make it previous the humiliating 6-0 defeat in opposition to Spain, or the extra embarrassing loss in opposition to North Macedonia? So, sorry, however we don’t concern him, and we don’t concern Hummels, who was probably the greatest centre-backs on the planet again in 2014, however is not even the very best at Borussia Dortmund!

Germany can assault and press as a lot as they need. With the return up entrance of Benzema, after five-and-a-half years away from Les Bleus, it is a a lot stronger crew. They’re enjoying in another way than in 2018, with extra of the ball and extra aptitude. The entrance three of Benzema, Mbappé and Griezmann is unquestionably the very best entrance three on this competitors. Mbappé himself is a distinct and extra mature participant than three years in the past.

N’Golo Kante is the very best midfielder on the planet proper now and might dominate any crew, and any recreation, by himself. When he performs alongside Pogba, they’re but to lose a single recreation (21 wins and 6 attracts in 27 caps collectively). France have every part, together with the conceitedness that you’re referring to. However who cares?

And by the best way, Germany gained the World Cup in 2014 with three centre-backs of their again 4 (Boateng, Hummels, Howedes), so we simply went one higher in 2018. And France have by no means lumped something lengthy, so that they gained’t begin on Tuesday …

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World Cup winner Sami Khedira shares his ideas on Germany and the powerhouse international locations in Group F.

Marcotti: Jogi Bear? Stylish Juls. Wager he by no means heard that one earlier than.

Look, I’m not going to argue that Germany have higher gamers or that France aren’t favorites, however you would possibly need to dial down the cockiness only a bit.

Germany have a greater keeper (Manuel Neuer over Hugo Lloris). They’ve a extra proficient midfield — yeah, I like Kante too, however relating to stuff midfielders are purported to do when in possession, I’ll take Ilkay Gundogan or Toni Kroos … passing issues.

I do know you’re super-excited for Benzema’s return, however Germany have a returning man too, Thomas Muller, and he too has achieved a factor or two. And Germany have width and one-on-one guys down the wings like Leroy Sane and Serge Gnabry whom, frankly, France don’t have.

I’ll admit, I do not know what model of Low we’ll see and whether or not he’ll make issues higher or worse, however I do know Deschamps gained’t make France greater than the sum of their components. Which is why I’m comfortable to lean Germany.

Laurens: And I’m comfortable to lean France, after all. This will likely be a unbelievable soccer recreation, with two groups filled with world-class gamers. Les Bleus are most likely favourites, however we all know that doesn’t all the time imply that you’ll win the sport.

Soccer’s historical past is prepared for one more epic chapter between France and Germany, like in earlier years. It’s Deschamps vs. Low, Raphael Varane vs Hummels, Benzema vs. Muller, Mbappe vs. Kai Havertz, Kante vs. Kroos; the checklist of particular person battles is big. Nevertheless, the winners would be the ones who’re the strongest collectively. And I nonetheless suppose that will likely be France.