Suns vs. Clippers: Chris Paul’s status, Paul George vs. Devin Booker, and why this is a make-or-miss series

As on-a-tee storylines go, Chris Paul dealing with the Clippers within the Western Convention finals, the place he was by no means capable of lead them in six seasons with the crew, is fairly good. However will Paul really play within the collection? We all know he’s already out for Recreation 1 as he stays in COVID well being and security protocols. 

In fact, the Clippers are taking part in with out a star of their very own. Kawhi Leonard gained’t journey to Phoenix for the primary two video games of the collection, that means the earliest we might presumably see him is in Recreation 3 as he offers with what the Clippers are calling a sprained knee. However the feeling is it’s worse than that sounds. The Clippers reportedly feared early on it was an ACL damage, but it surely was mentioned the swelling wanted to subside earlier than they may run the suitable exams. 

There’s a great probability we don’t see Leonard on this collection. Chances are high, Paul shall be obtainable sooner or later. We’ll get into that and extra under in our WCF preview. First, a have a look at the collection schedule and viewing info. 

• Recreation 1: Clippers @ Suns, Solar June 20, 3:30 p.m., ABC
• Recreation 2: Clippers @ Suns, Tue June 22, 9 p.m., ESPN
• Recreation 3: Suns @ Clippers, Thu June 24, 9 p.m., ESPN
• Recreation 4: Suns @ Clippers, Sat June 26, 9 p.m., ESPN
• Recreation 5 (if wanted): Clippers @ Suns, Mon June 28, 9 p.m., TBD
• Recreation 6 (if wanted): Suns @ Clippers, Wed June 30, 9 p.m., TBD
• Recreation 7 (if wanted): Clippers @ Suns, Fri July 2, 9 p.m., TBD

1. Will the superstars play?

Let’s not get too fancy off the highest right here. Each recreation Chris Paul misses is a large leg up for the Clippers. Sure, the Suns picked Paul up when he was taking part in with one arm in opposition to the Lakers, however he was largely again to himself in opposition to Denver and Phoenix rolled. He was fifth in MVP voting for crying out loud. His presence, or lack thereof, is doubtlessly collection swinging both method. 

That mentioned, the identical is true of Kawhi Leonard. Each recreation he doesn’t play is big for the Suns, who would in any other case be compelled to determine between doubling Leonard or sticking to the Clippers’ military of shooters. With out Leonard, the Suns, who’re about as geared up as any crew to stick with L.A.’s shooters with lengthy, athletic, and difficult wing defenders, can roughly play man to man. 

That’s essential as a result of the Clippers are red-hot proper now. They made 14 of 19 from 3 within the second half of Recreation 6 to shut out the Jazz. After shedding the primary two video games of that collection, they posted a completely ridiculous 133.7 offensive score over the ultimate 4 video games. 

With out Paul on the ground, the Clippers are additionally in a greater place to doubtlessly play Ivica Zubac. They’ve gone small to maintain Zubac from getting cooked as a drop pick-and-roll defender (as he was within the first two rounds when he was on the courtroom vs. Luka Doncic and Donovan Mitchell), and if Paul is on the courtroom strolling into these elbow jumpers off high-screen motion, the Clippers’ middle shall be just about unplayable. 

Now, when and if Ty Lue sees match, Zubac can fight Deandre Ayton for some minutes to negate the Suns’ measurement benefit. However that might solely maintain true for a number of video games, and even one recreation. As said on the prime, it appears extra seemingly that Paul performs on this collection than Leonard. Benefit, Suns. 

2. Paul George vs. Devin Booker

The factor is, even with out Leonard and Paul now we have a legit famous person matchup in George vs. Booker. Each are able to carrying their crew. We’ve seen it. George was excellent in Video games 5 and 6 to shut out Utah in Leonard’s absence. He’s been unbelievable all postseason, actually. 

In three regular-season video games vs. the Suns, George averaged over 32 factors on 56-61-80 capturing splits whereas flattening 17 3-pointers. You’ll seemingly see Mikal Bridges on George to start out, however the Suns can capably change with the likes of Jae Crowder and Cameron Johnson. I’ll have an interest to see how a lot excessive pick-and-roll the Clippers run for George to attempt to exploit Ayton in a backpedal. I think lots. Ayton making an attempt to defend in small lineups area goes to be an enormous a part of this collection.

In the meantime, Booker can also be residing as much as the star billing in his first postseason. he averaged just below 30 factors within the Lakers collection when Paul was all however ineffective. He’s averaging 27.7 total within the playoffs. He’s a stable pick-and-roll initiator, although Paul he’s not. Monte Williams runs nice units to get Booker catch-and-shoot seems to be, however with out Paul orchestrating and with the Clippers geared up to change off-ball actions, issues get lots harder. 

3. Make-or-miss collection

Each the Suns and Clippers are jump-shooting groups. They only do it from completely different spots. The Clippers hearth away from 3, whereas the Suns hunt the mid-range with Paul and Booker (With out Paul, it’ll be attention-grabbing to see if the Suns step again for extra 3s within the early a part of the collection). 

Getting into this collection, the Suns rank 14th out of 20 postseason groups in shot frequency on the rim. The Clippers rank thirteenth. They’re going to hearth jumpers, each of them, and they’ll be contested jumpers. The Suns have the highest defensive score within the playoffs, whereas the Clippers, regardless of taking part in small a lot of the time (or maybe due to it), are permitting simply 37.7 factors within the paint per recreation within the playoffs, the very best mark amongst all 16 qualifying groups. 

Translation: the Clippers make you shoot jumpers. The Suns like to take jumpers. Can they make greater than the Clippers, who’re capturing a collective 40.5 p.c from 3 within the playoffs? That can go a great distance in figuring out the winner of this collection.