Kawhi Leonard isn’t any stranger to 2-0 deficits. He performed for the final staff to beat one in a playoff sequence. His 2019 Toronto Raptors blew a fourth-quarter lead in opposition to Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks in Sport 1 of the Japanese Convention finals after which acquired demolished in Sport 2. The Bucks pushed them to absolutely the brink in Sport 3, a double-overtime thriller, however the Raptors staved off the de-facto sequence clincher. They didn’t lose once more in that sequence, wiping the Bucks out in six, and went on to win the championship.
That’s a precedent that the Clippers are going to must lean on as a result of in any other case, 2-0 comebacks are extraordinarily uncommon within the NBA. There have been 426 playoff sequence through which one staff led one other 2-0. The staff dealing with that deficit has received solely 27 of these sequence, or roughly 6.3 p.c. By comparability, an NBA staff is roughly six-and-a-half occasions likelier to get swept in that place, as there have been 176 sweeps in NBA historical past.
However the Clippers are in an much more tough place now. Bear in mind, they’re the upper seed on this sequence. They simply misplaced two video games at dwelling. They’re now touring to Dallas for 2 extra and should beat the Mavericks on the highway, in entrance of what is going to be a drastically totally different ambiance than what we simply noticed in Los Angeles, at the very least twice to win this sequence. Whereas 2-0 comebacks, on the whole, are pretty uncommon, the majority of them come from a staff defending its dwelling courtroom within the second two video games of the sequence earlier than stealing Sport 5 or 7 on the highway.
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Because the NBA-ABA merger in 1976, solely 4 groups have received a sequence after shedding the primary two video games at dwelling: the 1993 Suns (over the Lakers), the 1994 Rockets (over the Suns), the 2005 Mavericks (in opposition to the Rockets) and the 2017 Celtics (over the Bulls). The opposite groups to mount 2-0 comebacks all had the benefit of additional video games on their dwelling flooring. The Clippers is not going to.
The Clippers performed in Dallas twice this season. They received the primary sport and misplaced the second. If that consequence repeats itself, they are going to be down 3-1 getting into Sport 5 and their odds will shrink even additional. Of the 247 groups which have fallen down 3-1 in a sequence, solely 13 of them have come again to win. That’s a charge of solely 5 p.c. The Clippers are intimately accustomed to these odds, although, as the newest staff to blow a 3-1 lead. They did so final season in opposition to the Denver Nuggets.
They misplaced that sequence as a result of a rising European star in Nikola Jokic tore them to shreds. That has been their downfall on this sequence as nicely. Luka Doncic is averaging 35 factors, 9.0 assists and eight.5 rebounds per sport on this sequence, and his dominance is opening the whole lot else up for his teammates. By way of two video games, the Mavericks are taking pictures 50 p.c on 3-pointers.
That in all probability isn’t going to maintain. Neither is the Clippers’ poor taking pictures. They’re coming off of what’s, nearly with out debate, the most effective jump-shooting season in NBA historical past. But, to this point on this sequence, they’ve hit under 33 p.c of their 3-point makes an attempt. They need to be higher, however the issue with regression to the imply is that it’s meant to play out over lengthy pattern sizes. The Clippers can solely lose another sport on this sequence. If the Mavericks get fortunate one too many occasions, or they get unfortunate, it received’t matter what occurs over a significant pattern. They’ll get knocked out.
Kawhi has seen this earlier than. He’s one of many few stars in basketball that has overcome such a deficit. However there’s solely a lot he can do. He scored 41 factors in Sport 2, however that wasn’t sufficient because the three starters apart from him and Paul George scored solely 14 mixed factors for the Clippers. As tempting as it’s to say that Leonard wants to hold the Clippers by means of this tough patch, the reality is that no participant can beat a staff nearly as good as Dallas alone.
The identical was true of the 2019 Bucks. As nice as Leonard was, Fred VanVleet shot 82.4 p.c from behind the arc within the final three video games of that sequence. Kyle Lowry averaged nearly 20 factors in that span, and if it weren’t for Pascal Siakam and Norman Powell combining for 44 factors in Sport 3, the Bucks would have taken an insurmountable lead then and there. If Eric Bledsoe doesn’t shoot 30 p.c within the final 4 video games of that sequence, the Bucks win.
If Dallas continues to make all of its 3-pointers, the Mavericks are going to win no matter what the Clippers do. But when they arrive again right down to Earth, the Clippers have an opportunity, and that probability depends on the same group effort. It could actually’t simply be Leonard and George. The Clippers want everybody in the event that they’re going to win this factor.
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The submit Clippers dealing with overwhelming odds as Luka Doncic, Mavericks take commanding 2-0 lead in first-round sequence appeared first on The Black Chronicle.
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