2023 U.S. Open picks, odds: Expert predictions, favorites to win from betting field at Torrey Pines

With the one hundred and twentieth U.S. Open quick approaching, the important thing query everybody’s asking is identical throughout the golf world: Who’re you choosing to win at Torrey Pines in June? With an incredible area that includes a lot of the finest professionals on the earth, the third main of 2023 must be an epic trip from Thursday’s first spherical onward.

The U.S. Open storylines are plentiful this week. Bryson DeChambeau is trying to go back-to-back on the occasion, whereas Brooks Koepka makes an attempt to win his third U.S. Open in 4 years. Phil Mickelson, who turns 51 on Wednesday, is trying to proceed stunning the world with a second straight main title after his win on the PGA Championship final month. Lefty stays one nationwide championship away from the profession grand slam.

So what will occur this week at Torrey Pines? Let’s check out a full set of predictions and picks from our CBS Sports activities specialists. Try a full set of 2023 U.S. Open odds by way of William Hill Sportsbook and Spherical 1 tee occasions.

Rick Gehman, Kyle Porter, Greg DuCharme and Jonathan Coachman preview the 2023 U.S. Open at Torrey Pines. Comply with & hearken to The First Minimize on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

2023 U.S. Open skilled picks, predictions

Kyle Porter, golf author

Winner — Bryson DeChambeau (18-1): The chances right here simply don’t match up with how nicely DeChambeau matches the mildew of the fashionable U.S. Open golfer. Typically we low cost golfers who received the 12 months earlier than due to how few have gone back-to-back at this event, however you might make an actual argument that DeChambeau’s sport matches Torrey Pines much better than it does Winged Foot (which he received by six). He’s the choose in any respect future U.S. Opens till he offers me a motive he shouldn’t be.

Sleeper — Louis Oosthuizen (45-1): Talking of men it’s simple to love, Oosthuizen’s U.S. Open report is pristine. He consistently finishes within the high 25 at this occasion (yearly since 2015), and although he’s additionally a troublesome participant to choose to really win a serious championship, it’s probably that he’s going to insert himself within the combine sooner or later — identical to he did on the final U.S. Open in addition to the PGA Championship at Kiawah Island.

High 10 lock — Xander Schauffele: I suppose it’s the 4 straight high 10s at U.S. Opens that has me captivated. I’m not large on him successful, however to me, he — and never Jon Rahm — is the lock to play nicely right here this week. Everybody who has stated it’s appropriate; he has no holes. Each a part of his sport is supreme, although he’s not essentially the very best on the earth at something. He’s additionally a stable putter on poa annua, contended right here in January and had a shot on the Masters late within the event. What’s to not like?!

Star who undoubtedly received’t win — Jordan Spieth: I be ok with this one. He simply has not been superb at U.S. Opens since his win at Chambers Bay. I’m an enormous believer in the place his sport is at and the way a lot the long-term trajectory has modified, however this week at Torrey Pines shouldn’t be going to be per week it exhibits.

Shock prediction — Jon Rahm falters: I’m fading Rahm this week, largely as a result of each single factor is pointing towards him working away and successful this factor by 4 strokes. His U.S. Open report shouldn’t be that nice, and it’s not obscure why. For all of the bodily presents, the U.S. Open is a psychological struggle of attrition. Whereas the “he wants to alter his perspective” stuff with Rahm is method overplayed, there’s a fact there that he must not let the unhealthy break that simply occurred have an effect on his subsequent 5 photographs. I believe he does this too usually at U.S. Opens, and I believe he’ll do it once more this week at Torrey Pines as the favourite.

Lowest rating: 66 (-5)
Profitable rating: 283 (-1)
Winner’s Sunday rating: 72 (+1)

Chip Patterson, author

Winner — Jon Rahm (9-1): Don’t overthink it or attempt to speak your self into pondering the isolation will harm Rahm’s skill to win. With seven top-10 finishes in his final 13 main championship begins — together with T5 on the Masters in April and T8 on the PGA Championship in Might — nobody within the area is knocking on the door of his first main win fairly like Rahm. He’s a worthy betting favourite, and each his course historical past and sport are set as much as survive the grueling job of working your method round Torrey Pines.  

Sleeper — Daniel Berger (40-1): His finest main championship end is at Shinnecock (T6), the place Brooks Koepka received with a +1 rating. Positive, his early-in-the-day 66 on Saturday helped him fly up the leaderboard whereas the remainder of the ultimate top-10 scored within the 70s, however his kind on Friday on Sunday at that extraordinarily troublesome and really on-brand U.S. Open tells me acquired the products to outlive 4 rounds at Torrey Pines. Different winners are extra enjoyable for narratives, however my hunch is we’ll see somebody outdoors of these high 9 or 10 names on the chances board emerge to win. 

High 10 lock — Tony Finau: OK, so perhaps one particular person within the area is knocking the door of his first main win like Rahm, however Finau’s win conversion doesn’t stack as much as Rahm and his 11 worldwide wins (5 on the PGA Tour) because the begin of 2017. Finau has completed within the top-10 in 9 of his final 13 main championship begins, and he was proper there with Berger in 2018 firing the low spherical of the day on Saturday to soar from forty fifth place to realize a share of the 54-hole lead. The gap between Finau’s top-10 ground and ceiling as a winner seems like a gulf, however he’s acquired the products to ship on that (very excessive) ground extra occasions than not. 

Star who undoubtedly received’t win — Bryson DeChambeau: He hasn’t completed within the high 30 of both of 2023’s main championships and whereas the course arrange appears destined to be a bonus for his sport I’m out on the back-to-back. DeChambeau will be capable of overcome the thick tough in methods others received’t, however there’s too many large numbers mendacity round Torrey Pines to assume he will get by means of 72 holes with out an ejection gap or two that may price you on Sunday. High 10? Positive. However successful requires a sharper edge than he’s proven in majors to this point this 12 months. 

Shock prediction — No hole-in-ones: On the Masters, we dialed in on declaring a number of aces, however I don’t assume we see any by means of 4 days of championship motion at Torrey Pines. Each of the par-3s on the again 9 are a little bit lengthy for dead-eye accuracy checking in at greater than 220 yards, and the shortest par-3 (No. 8) has a two-tiered inexperienced with massive bunkers on the back and front that can have golfers pondering extra about membership choice and avoiding the flawed spots than pin-hunting for aces. 

Lowest spherical: 66 (-5) 
Profitable rating: 280 (-4)
Winner’s Sunday rating: 69 (-2)

Who will win the U.S. Open, and which lengthy photographs will stun {the golfing} world? Go to SportsLine to see the projected leaderboard, all from the mannequin that’s nailed six golf majors and is up nicely over $9,000 because the restart.

Kyle Boone, author

Winner — Collin Morikawa (22-1): There are few golfers on the tour proper now pretty much as good or constant as Morikawa has been of late. He’s completed top-15 in his final 4 outings and is coming off a loss on the Memorial the place he was good earlier than falling to Patrick Cantlay in a playoff. And at Torrey Pines, his power as a ball-striker and knack to seek out fairways with regularity will likely be on full show. If he’s capable of be just-OK across the greens and on them, I like his probabilities this week, and I clearly love the worth at 22-1 for a younger star already with a serious championship underneath his belt.

Sleeper — Garrick Higgo (50-1): 

I’ll trip the Higgo wave right here. Higgo was masterful at Congaree, successful the Palmetto Championship — his first victory on the PGA Tour in his second begin — this previous weekend with a remarkably constant four-round outing. He is without doubt one of the sport’s younger stars who has unbelievable size off the tee, and whereas he must pair that with accuracy — a tall job for a participant making his second profession main championship look — it’s an X-factor that might make him an fascinating sleeper if he picks up the place he left off on the Palmetto.

High 10 lock — Jordan Spieth: How nicely Spieth has performed this 12 months has, rightfully, made him one of many fashionable picks to win once more at a serious championship venue after a years lengthy drought. And whereas he’s been shut, he’s to this point been unable to transform his outdated kind to new wins. That features a T3 Masters end and a disappointing T30 end on the PGA Championship. Provided that, I’m not able to predict a win right here at Torrey Pines the place the lengthy observe and demanding circumstances would require perfection off the tees from a participant like Spieth who usually struggles with the motive force. But when he’s capable of keep out of hassle coming off the tee field and might channel his brief sport wizardry, as he’s wont to do, then he may simply wind up in competition and end high 10 on the leaderboard by Sunday night.

Star who undoubtedly received’t win — Rory McIlroy: Rory is a bonafide star with the bodily presents and expertise most on the PGA Tour may solely dream of possessing. However he’s made a behavior of shrinking in main championships, and he’s an auto-fade till he sheds that routine. On the primary day of the PGA Championship in Might, it already felt like he was out of it regardless of an opening-round 75. Identical deal for the Masters the place he opened with a 76 and went on to overlook the reduce. Now, may he open the week with a 4-under 67 and thrust himself into competition? Completely. However an opening-round 76 appears extra probably for him, and proper now successful the U.S. Open seems like an enormous stretch given his current showings at majors. I’d like to be flawed.

Shock prediction — Brooks and Bryson get paired: The golf gods ultimately bless up sooner or later on this event and pair the behemoths who’re at odds with one another. I’ll take this a step additional and add that they aren’t solely paired collectively for a spherical, they’re paired collectively and each high 10 on the leaderboard coming into Saturday. Now, off the course, there’s been sufficient beef between these two to feed everybody in San Diego this weekend. However don’t let it distract you from the truth that each are top-10 golfers within the OWGR and completely able to successful this weekend.

Lowest spherical: 65 (-6)

Profitable rating: 271 (-13)

Winner’s Sunday rating: 68 (-3)

Jacob Hallex, producer

Winner — Brooks Koepka (18-1): We’re due for a Koepka win. The man exhibits up for majors, see final week’s Palmetto Championship vs. the PGA Championship only a few weeks prior. Proper now, he’s sitting at a plump 18-1. The knee has been a trouble however it didn’t appear to be a lot of a problem at Kiawah. Brooks completed T2 on the 2019 Masters the place all of us witnessed a miraculous Tiger Woods victory. Koepka went on to win the subsequent main only a few weeks later. This 12 months, Brooks completed T2 on the PGA Championship the place he acquired a first-hand view of Phil’s historic victory… see the place I’m going right here? On the finish of the day, you possibly can by no means go flawed with choosing Koepka in a serious championship, particularly a U.S. Open the place he’s already seen victory twice.

Sleeper — Wilco Nienaber (200-1): He was within the combine final week on the Palmetto, I’d like to see him on the high once more this week. The world acquired to know Will Zalatoris on the Masters, this week Wilco says, “Hi there World.” The South African is constructed like a one-iron however hits the ball farther than Beefy Bryson himself. He charges out nicely on the DataGolf course match instrument. The U.S. Opens favor the lengthy hitters who can smack it out of the tough… I’ll take the Saffa as my sleeper.

High 10 lock — Patrick Cantlay: Solar, surf and Patrick Cantlay. We’re coming into the time of 12 months the place I anticipate large issues from the present FedEx Cup chief. Cantlay’s 2023 Memorial win will all the time have an asterisk subsequent to it for the diligent golf followers, however you possibly can’t deny he had a superb week at Jack’s Place. Cantlay has gained practically 3 strokes per spherical over his final eight measured rounds on the PGA Tour. The U.S. Open is traditionally his weakest main which is why you get large worth backing him for a top-10 end at +250 on William Hill Sportsbook.

Star who undoubtedly received’t win — Bryson DeChambeau: Bryson is in poor kind. He regarded meh on the PGA Championship, and the stats bear it out. His rolling strokes gained common over the past eight measured PGA Tour rounds is barely +1.22. Sure, it’s constructive, however hardly the type of an impending main champion. You can too think about how uncommon the back-to-back deed is for any participant. When Brooks did it in 2017 and 2018, he was the primary to take action since Curtis Unusual achieved the feat in 1988 and 1989. Bryson hasn’t regarded the identical since an atrocious Sunday efficiency at The Gamers Championship. 

Shock prediction: Dustin Johnson misses the reduce. Deej regarded… regarding… like week on the Palmetto Championship. Actually, he’s regarded pretty mediocre since successful the Masters within the fall. He’s the primary ranked participant on the earth, however it’s crucial to remember that’s a two-year rolling common. I’m troubled by his back-to-back missed cuts on the Masters and the PGA Championship this 12 months. He ought to have rolled at Congaree and averted the a number of large numbers he posted in his residence state. The putter seems to be terrible, and I’m not anticipating issues to all of a sudden flip round on a special coast with main championship circumstances. 

Lowest spherical: 67 (-4)
Profitable rating: 278 (-6)
Winner’s Sunday rating: 69 (-2)