Concacaf Nations League final: Three questions which will define the match between USMNT and Mexico

Denver — The U.S. males’s nationwide staff and Mexico renew their rivalry Sunday evening when the 2 sides face off within the closing of the Concacaf Nations League on CBS Sports activities Community and Paramount+. Each groups struggled to slim victories in opposition to inferior competitors within the semifinals. It took the U.S. till the 89th for his or her breakthrough purpose from substitute Jordan Siebatcheu in opposition to Honduras whereas Costa Rica took Mexico to penalties earlier than Memo Ochoa’s essential save put El Tri via.

Listed below are three questions which can be more likely to resolve who will emerge victorious when Concacaf’s two finest groups take the sphere.

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1. Who will tire first?

Within the semifinals each Mexico and the USMNT noticed vital drop offs of their efficiency from the primary to the second half. Whereas neither staff managed to interrupt via and rating a purpose within the opening interval, each of the favorites clearly dominated their opposition. Then the scenario modified after the break.

Over the course of the match, the USMNT dominated Honduras. The facet had 64% of the ball, making an attempt 477 passes to Honduras’s 255. They took 10 photographs to Honduras’s seven, however extra importantly their anticipated purpose whole was 1.43 to Honduras’s 0.19, suggesting that the U.S. used all that passing to not solely outshoot their opponents however take considerably higher photographs as properly. However break down the U.S. manufacturing by half and a scary sample emerges. Six of the staff’s 10 photographs got here within the first half, and 0.92 of their xG did as properly. In reality till Siebatcheu’s purpose the staff created solely 0.19 xG, a steep drop-off from their first half domination. Relatively than asserting their dominance as the sport went on, the U.S. pale badly, and had been largely stymied by Honduras for lengthy stretches of the second half.

The same factor occurred to Mexico. Over the course of the sport El Tri received the possession battle, 58% to 42%, outshot Costa Rica 13 to 6 and had extra xG, 0.99 to 0.35, however equally to the US their dominance waned because the match progressed. Totally 10 of Mexico’s photographs got here within the first half, and 0.86 of their xG tally was accrued earlier than the break. Mexico, like the US, dominated within the first half and limped to the end line.

These matches are being performed at altitude in Denver, they usually come after an extended and busy season with an unusually crowded schedule because of the continuing impression of the coronavirus pandemic. Maybe it’s comprehensible that popping out flying within the first half results in a slower second half. That stated, if both of those two groups can handle to discover a second wind (or dangle onto their first wind longer) they’ll possible have the ability to dominate within the second half and win the match. Whether or not which means managers needs to be seeking to make early substitutions or play an power saving extra conservative first half, or simply go away it as much as their gamers to seek out extra left of their legs, the second half of this match might be the place it’s determined.

2. Can the US win the possession battle?

There was a time when the U.S. was a counterattacking staff. They defended low, had been arduous to interrupt down, and appeared to ask opponents onto them with a purpose to use superior athleticism to interrupt at pace and catch extra expert opponents with their guard down. That method meant that sometimes the staff was in a position to pull off shocking upsets but in addition that they may wrestle in opposition to much less expert opponents who had been tired of taking dangers to interrupt them down. These days are gone.

Over their final ten matches the US has had extra possession in 9 of them and people 9 matches have resulted in eight wins and a draw. The one match they’d lower than 50% possession in was their pleasant in opposition to Switzerland, final week, a match they misplaced 2-1. 

Now, that’s to not say that successful the possession battle ensures a victory. The final time the U.S. confronted Mexico, in reality, the staff had over 52% of the ball, however misplaced 3-0. You may  argue that the explanation the U.S. had a lot possession in that match is that they had been so unsuccessful whereas chasing the sport. And the truth that they solely had six whole photographs would counsel you’d be right. Nonetheless, broadly talking, the present model of the USMNT, with Christian Pulisic and Gio Reyna as influential attacking items, likes having the ball. If they will management possession in opposition to Mexico (which has the additional benefit of conserving El Tri away from their shaky again line) they’ll be in place to win.

3. Will Mexico be affected person?

One factor that the USMNT just isn’t significantly good at is forcing groups to shoot from distance. Solely twice of their final ten matches has the US managed to pressure opponents to take greater than half their photographs from outdoors the field. This isn’t the tip of the world for the U.S. as a result of additionally they handle to maintain groups from producing many photographs in opposition to them, solely conceding greater than 10 twice of their final ten matches.

Mexico, in the meantime took seven of their 13 photographs from outdoors the field in opposition to Costa Rica. Hirving Lozano, who appeared like Mexico’s most electrical attacker on the evening, solely managed to take one in every of his three photographs from shut vary. For all that Mexico had been dynamic in huge areas they struggled to show these assaults down the wing into good trying makes an attempt in the midst of the field. These alternatives are there available in opposition to the U.S. and if Mexico are going to proceed their dominance of their northern rivals, they’re going to need to reap the benefits of them.